![]() Most hockey bettors and modelers will agree that it is the hardest part of handicapping hockey. Goaltending is incredibly volatile and hard to project. A scoring chance that meets certain criteria goes down as a HDSC. High-Danger Scoring Chances (HDSC) is a stat tracked by Natural Stat Trick. Once again, the best way to use xG is at 5v5, but if you're looking to break down how good a team's power play or penalty kill is, you can use xG there as well. A rebound opportunity from in front of the net has a much higher chance of going in the net than a wrist shot from the blue line. ![]() Corsica, perhaps the best source for Hockey Analytics and predictive stats, defines xG as the sum of goal fractions expected from observed unblocked shots. If you're a soccer bettor, there's a good chance you use xG already. Adjusting for score gives us a better idea of the true talent level of a team. A team that is trailing 3-0 will naturally push the pace while a team up multiple goals will shell up. When you're looking at Corsi, expected goals or any advanced stat, it is really important to adjust for score. Usually a team's CF% and FF% are pretty close. Recently, teams, analysts and bettors have started to shift toward Expected Goals, High-Danger Scoring Chances and scoring chances.Ĭorsi isn't the be all and end all that some people make it out to be, but it gives you a decent foundation with which to work.įenwick is the same thing as Corsi except it doesn't count blocked shots. A soft wrist shot from the point has very little chance of going in but will go down as a Corsi For. One problem with Corsi is that it doesn't give you a good idea of how many good scoring chances a team is creating or allowing. Pictured: Carolina Hurricanes left wing Warren Foegele If your team has a CF% above 50%, then it has been controlling the action more often than not. Hockey is so fluid, and there are so many "events" in a game that it's hard to keep track.ĬF% or “Corsi For Percentage” is just the difference between Corsi events for and against represented as a percentage. What Corsi does is give us a picture of possession in a game. If the other team does it, well that's a Corsi Against. If you shoot the puck toward the goal, it's a Corsi For. Some are just noise, but others can be quite predictive and can help you get a better idea of how good or bad a team truly is.Ĭorsi is just the hockey vernacular term for a shot attempt at 5-on-5. If your numbers are close to the lines, what you're doing is working.Ĭlick to return to table of contents. I'd encourage you to come up with a "win percentage" before looking at lines. ![]() If you think or your numbers tell you Boston has better than a 54.3% chance of winning, you have an edge on the Bruins at -130. The easiest way to do this is by using Pinnacle's converter. At -130, the Bruins have an implied probability of 54.3% when calculating for the vigorish. For example, let's say you are considering this line: Bruins are -130 against the Canadiens +110. Speaking of process, it is paramount to familiarize yourself with implied probability.Įvery betting line correlates with an implied probability. If you aren't, take it as an opportunity to re-evaluate your process. If you're beating the closing number on a consistent basis it means you'll have more long-term success. If it closes at -110, you were on the wrong side. The best way to judge yourself as a bettor is to grade yourself against the closing line at Pinnacle (considered the sharpest NHL sportsbook) on the Action Network App.įor example, if you bet the Stars -115 against the Rangers -105 and the game closes at Stars -120 at Pinnacle, you were on the right side of the game. This doesn't mean it's easy - it isn't - but it is just something to keep in mind if you're considering giving it a go. Not as many people bet on the NHL, so the market is not as efficient as it is for the more popular sports. The best part about betting on hockey is that the market is softer than it is for other sports such as the NFL, college football or the NBA. Use the links to navigate to each section.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Details
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |